Srinidhi Santosh, Vaibhav Dutt, Bharath Palavalli

(Working Paper) Governance Gaps in Scenario-based Planning- An Agent-based Modelling Approach


This paper presents the method of addressing the issues related to governance in scenario-based planning through an agent-based simulation approach. Statutory plans like the master plans or the development plans are formed envisioning the city towards development. The traditional planning method follows a predict and plan approach, with less consideration to multiple uncertainties. The concept of using scenario-based planning as a tool depicts possible futures for the city and helps the agencies involved to take an informed decision. Planners have been using this method for the preparation of development/master plans to analyse the future outcomes of their current decisions(Chakraborty & Mcmillan, 2015). However, in the process of adopting this concept of scenario-based planning, parameters relating to future uncertainties and governance are overlooked. Literature identifies these issues as (1) Fixed outcome, (2) Simplistic scenarios, (3) No consideration to planning support systems, (4) No consideration towards the inclusion of agencies. Though simulation models have addressed the uncertainties in scenario planning, the aspect of governance is overlooked. With India having a complex governance structure of functional overlaps and interlinkages, each government agency creates their individual plan with respect to their roles and functions for the development of the city. Each of these plans are made in silo having their respective aims and visions. A case study-based approach is applied to understand in detail the issues related to governance in scenario-based planning. It involves understanding the issues in the government structure through town planning acts and other literature and case studies. The study concludes with ways to address certain governance issues affecting scenario-based planning through agent-based simulation approach.